![]() ![]() So a fairly small swing was enough to flip 29 EVs to Trump.Ī crucial factor in Trump’s victory was that voters who did not like either candidate (18% of the total according to exit polls) selected Trump by 47-30 over Clinton. While Hispanic turnout was up in Florida, Trump compensated by winning non-University educated whites crushingly, and this gave him a 1.2% margin in that state, compared with Obama’s 0.9% 2012 margin. Hispanic turnout was higher than in 2012, and this improved Clinton’s position in Texas, Arizona and California, which also have many university-educated whites. ![]() Blacks vote heavily for Democrats, but their turnout was down as Obama was not the candidate. In the midwest, the proportion of non-University educated whites is higher than nationally, and there are few Hispanics. Even in counties with more black or Hispanic voters than whites, the relationship between education level and swing to Trump applied. US analyst Nate Silver shows that education level, not income, explained the swings. The states Trump gained had a greater proportion of non-University educated whites than nationally. Clinton’s gains in California and Texas resulted in zero additional EVs, while Trump’s big gains in the midwest hugely benefited him in the Electoral College, as he won five midwestern states that had previously been won by Obama, and thus gained all those states’ EVs.Įducation level was the biggest factor in explaining the swings, with higher educated voters likely to swing to Clinton, and lower educated voters to Trump. The discrepancy between the popular vote and Electoral College was caused mainly by solid swings to Clinton in the two most populous states, California and Texas, but big swings to Trump in the midwest. Education level major reason for popular vote/Electoral College split The discrepancy between the popular vote and tipping-point state was thus 2.9% in favour of Trump, the biggest it has been since 1948. Had Clinton won Michigan (Trump by 0.2%) and Pennsylvania (Trump by 0.7%), she would still have lost the Electoral College by 270-268. Peter Brent says 82% of eligible Australians cast a formal vote at the recent Federal election, and this is under compulsory voting.Īt this election, Wisconsin (Trump by 0.8%) was the tipping-point state. This seems low, but we are talking about eligible voters, not registered or enrolled voters. ![]() Turnout at this election was 60.0% of eligible voters, up from 58.6% in 2012. ![]() This spreadsheet by Cook Political Report analyst David Waserman gives details on the popular vote, both nationally and for each state, including the swing from the 2012 election. Clinton’s popular vote percentage margin is the largest for a loser since 1876, and the 1876 election was heavily disputed. This is the fifth time the popular vote winner has not won the Presidency the other occasions were 1824, 1876, 18. Libertarian Gary Johnson won 3.3% and Green Jill Stein 1.1%. In percentage terms, Clinton won 48.1%, to Trump’s 46.0%, a 2.1% popular vote win, compared with Obama’s 3.9% win over Romney. Clinton’s raw vote was down only slightly from Obama’s 65.92 million in 2012, while Trump was over 2 million above Mitt Romney’s vote. Thus, Arizona should be white with a red border, Colorado light blue, and both Texas and Iowa light red.Ĭlinton won the overall popular vote by 65.84 million votes, to 62.98 million for Trump, a difference of 2.86 million. A few states should be better on the map for Clinton given final results. Maine is purple as it split its EVs, with Trump winning the rural 2nd Congressional District, while Clinton won the state hence, Clinton won 3 Maine EVs, to 1 for Trump. States that were won by Barack Obama in 2012, but flipped to Trump in 2016 are Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Red represents Republicans (Trump), and blue Democrats (Clinton).ĭark blue and red states were won by at least 10%, light blue and red states by 5-9%, and states with a blue or red border by 0-4%. Numbers below state two-letter abbreviations are the state’s EVs. The final Electoral College map from ElectoralVote is at the top of this article. Had these states been won by Clinton, she would have won the Electoral College by a 307-231 margin. While this seems a convincing victory, Trump won four states by 1.2% or less: Florida (29 EVs), Pennsylvania (20 EVs), Wisconsin (10 EVs) and Michigan (16 EVs). At the US election held on 8 November 2016, Donald Trump won the Electoral College by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), to 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. ![]()
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